19-September-2024-Editorial

INDIA-CHINA BORDER DISENGAGEMENT ALONG THE LAC: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

The India-China border, particularly along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh, has been a long-standing source of tension. While progress has been made in reducing military confrontation, several areas remain contentious.

Recent discussions between high-level officials from both sides have aimed at de-escalating the situation, yet the path to full disengagement is far from over.

The focus of these talks is to ease tensions, but certain regions like the Depsang Plains and Demchok have seen little to no progress.

Recent Developments on India-China Disengagement

Verified Disengagement:

• Progress in Key Areas: India and China have reached agreements and verified disengagement in five key areas of tension along the LAC. These areas include:

• Galwan Valley: Site of the deadly clashes in 2020.
• Pangong Tso: A high-altitude lake where multiple confrontations occurred.
• Gogra-Hot Springs: Another friction point where troops were in close proximity.

• Unresolved Areas: Despite these agreements, regions like Demchok and Depsang Plains remain unresolved, with little progress reported in the last two years.

Reasons for Disengagement:

• Diplomatic Engagements: The disengagement is largely due to high-level diplomatic interactions. India’s National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, recently met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during the BRICS NSAs meeting in Russia. These talks have fueled optimism for further disengagement, especially ahead of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, in October.
• Bilateral Discussions: The 31st Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC) highlighted the importance of narrowing differences and finding resolutions to the remaining issues, marking a shift towards a more constructive dialogue.

Challenges in the Disengagement Process

Stalled Negotiations:

• Lack of Progress in Critical Areas: Despite numerous rounds of negotiations, no agreement has been reached on disengagement in the Demchok and Depsang regions, prolonging the standoff.

Military Build-Up:

• Continued Troop Presence: Both nations continue to deploy significant numbers of troops along the LAC, with an estimated 50,000-60,000 troops stationed on each side.
• Infrastructure Development: Both India and China have engaged in large-scale infrastructure development along the border, including roads and military facilities, further complicating disengagement efforts.

Risk of Escalation:

• Potential for Conflict: The rapid infrastructure expansion and modernization of military assets on both sides increase the risk of an accidental escalation of tensions, potentially leading to a larger conflict.

Strategic Importance of Depsang Plains and Demchok

Depsang Plains:

• Strategic Location: The Depsang Plains are critical for India’s defense of the Siachen Glacier. Control over this region by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) poses a threat to India’s position in Siachen.
• Vulnerability to a Two-Front Attack: This region is considered one of the most vulnerable due to its flat terrain, which is conducive to mechanized warfare. A joint attack by China and Pakistan could encircle India’s forces in Siachen, putting the region at severe risk.

Demchok:

• Key for Surveillance: The Demchok region provides India with an advantage for monitoring Chinese activities in Aksai Chin. It also supports crucial road and communication networks necessary for military logistics and mobilization in this strategically vital area.

   

Areas in the India-China Standoff

Pangong Tso:

• Frequent Patrol Clashes: India and China have long had disagreements over their territorial claims in this region. The north bank of Pangong Tso is divided into “Fingers” (mountain spurs), with India claiming territory up to Finger 8 and China disputing this by holding areas up to Finger 4.

Galwan Valley:

• Site of 2020 Clashes: The Galwan River basin became a hotspot of tensions when Chinese forces set up camps near the river. The 2020 clashes led to a significant deterioration in relations.

Gogra Post:

• Tensions at Gogra Post: Chinese military buildup near Gogra Post has been another source of concern, adding to the existing friction along the LAC.

Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO):

• Strategic Importance: The DBO airstrip is crucial for India’s ability to reinforce and supply troops in the high-altitude region. Chinese incursions into this sector pose a threat to India’s access via the 255 km-long Darbuk-Shyok-DBO road.

Reasons Behind China’s Aggression Along the LAC

Infrastructure Sensitivity:

• India’s Infrastructure Developments: China’s aggressive actions along the LAC are partly a reaction to India’s infrastructure upgrades near the border, which have enhanced India’s military readiness.

Coercive Diplomacy:

• Exerting Pressure on India: China may be using military pressure as a diplomatic tool to assert dominance and influence India’s position on various international issues, including bilateral relations and regional alliances like the BRICS and G20.

Wolf-Warrior Diplomacy:

• Aggressive Foreign Policy: China’s confrontational diplomatic style, often referred to as “wolf-warrior diplomacy,” has also been reflected in its military stance, leading to heightened tensions along the border.

Managing the Border Dispute: Possible Solutions

Clarification of the LAC:

• Defining Boundaries: A clear demarcation of the LAC could help reduce misunderstandings and prevent future clashes in disputed areas.

Permanent Buffer Zones:

• Establishing Neutral Zones: Both sides could consider formalizing existing buffer zones and creating new ones to prevent direct military contact in sensitive areas.

Adherence to Agreements:

• Respecting Previous Agreements: Both nations should continue to abide by existing bilateral agreements that ban the use of firearms and engage in confidence-building measures to maintain peace.

No-Patrol Zones:

• Limiting Patrols: Establishing no-patrol zones in areas with frequent confrontations could help reduce tensions and prevent accidental clashes.

Use of Drones:

• Drones for Surveillance: Both nations could agree on parameters for the use of drones for surveillance and intelligence gathering, which could improve transparency and reduce the risk of conflict.

Mutual Security Agreements:

• Balanced Military Presence: Both sides could agree on limiting troop deployments and military infrastructure near the LAC, based on the principle of mutual security.

Conclusion:

The India-China border dispute remains a complex and challenging issue, with both nations deeply entrenched in their positions. While some progress has been made, the path to full disengagement is fraught with obstacles. Ongoing dialogue, trust-building, and a focus on diplomatic solutions will be critical to maintaining peace and stability along the LAC.