23-October-2024-Special-Article

INDIA’S AGEING AND SHRINKING POPULATION

Recently, politicians in Southern India have expressed worries about the ageing and shrinking population. They have proposed laws to encourage more families to have children.

An ageing population refers to a demographic trend where the number of individuals aged 65 and older increases compared to the working-age group (15-64 years).

Current Data on Ageing and Population Size in India

Overall Population Growth

• Population Increase: India’s population is expected to rise by 311 million between 2011 and 2036.
• State Concentration: Nearly half of this growth (170 million) will come from five states: Bihar, Uttar Pradesh (UP), Maharashtra, West Bengal, and Madhya Pradesh.
• Regional Disparities: UP alone is projected to contribute 19% of the total population growth. In contrast, the five Southern states (Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu) will add only 29 million people, or 9% of the total growth.

Ageing Population Trends

• Ageing Population: The number of individuals aged 60 years and above is expected to more than double from 100 million in 2011 to 230 million by 2036. Their share of the total population will increase from 8.4% to 14.9%.
• State Variations: In Kerala, the proportion of individuals aged 60 and older is projected to rise from 13% in 2011 to 23% by 2036. Meanwhile, in UP, this group will increase from 7% to 12%.
• North-South Divide: Southern states have experienced a quicker decline in fertility rates compared to Northern states. For example, UP is expected to reach the Replacement Level of Fertility (2.1 children per woman) by 2025, over two decades later than Andhra Pradesh, which reached this level in 2004.

Causes of Ageing and Shrinking Population

• Contraception and Family Planning: The availability of contraception and abortion services allows individuals to control their reproductive choices better.
• Women’s Economic Participation: More women are joining the workforce and may delay childbirth or choose not to have children due to career goals and financial stability.
• Improved Child Survival Rates: The under-five mortality rate has significantly decreased, from 126 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 34 in 2019. This decline leads families to have fewer children, as they feel more secure that their children will survive.
• Urbanization: As people migrate to urban areas, the cost of living increases, making it harder for families to afford children. Urban lifestyles may also prioritize career advancement over family growth.
• Migration: Emigration to countries like the UAE and the USA is causing a decline in India’s population.

Concerns Associated with Ageing Population

• Political Representation: Southern states may fear losing political power due to their smaller, ageing populations, resulting in fewer Lok Sabha seats.
• Slower GDP Growth: An ageing population can slow GDP growth due to a shrinking workforce. For instance, in the US, the growth of the working-age population is expected to decrease from 1.24% per year (1975-2015) to 0.29% (2015-2055).
• High Dependency Ratio: An increase in the ageing population will result in a higher dependency ratio, placing a heavier burden on the working-age population (15-64 years). The current dependency ratio of 47% is expected to rise significantly.
• Rising Public Expenditure: The costs of healthcare, pensions, and long-term care will surge as the population ages, potentially leading to higher taxes or reduced benefits.
• Intergenerational Equity Issues: Younger individuals may feel unfairly taxed to support the older generation, causing societal divides and feelings of injustice.
• Pressure for Institutional Reform: There may be increasing demands for changes in retirement ages, social security benefits, and healthcare systems.

Shift from Population Growth to Shrinkage

• Five decades ago, India faced challenges from rapid population growth driven by high fertility rates. However, many Southern states have successfully reduced population growth rates.
• Andhra Pradesh, for example, achieved the Replacement Level of Fertility in 2004. Although individual states have lower fertility levels, India remains the most populous country globally.

Global Responses to Ageing Population

• China’s Three-Child Policy: In 2016, China relaxed its one-child policy to allow families to have two children, then later allowed three children in 2021.
• Japan’s Parental Leave: Japan offers a 12-month parental leave, financial aid for parents, and substantial investment in subsidized childcare.
• Extended Retirement Age: Countries like France and the Netherlands have raised retirement ages to relieve pressure on pension systems.
• Open Immigration Policy: Countries such as Australia and Canada have adopted open immigration policies to counter labor shortages from declining populations.

Strategies to Address Ageing and Shrinking Population

• Pro-Natalist Policies: Countries like those in Scandinavia have shown that support for families, childcare, gender equality, and parental leave can help maintain fertility rates. Increased funding for child healthcare and education can encourage families to have more children.
• Leveraging Internal Migration: Facilitating migration from more populous Northern states to developed Southern states can help mitigate the impacts of an ageing population by boosting the working-age population.
• Promoting Gender Equality: Initiatives that promote shared parenting responsibilities can help increase fertility rates by creating a supportive environment for families.

Conclusion

Addressing the challenges posed by an ageing and shrinking population in India requires comprehensive policies that promote family growth, enhance economic opportunities, and ensure equitable representation in governance. By learning from global practices and adapting them to local contexts, India can navigate this demographic transition successfully.

Mains Question:

1. Analyze the implications of India’s ageing and shrinking population on its economic growth and social structure and discuss potential strategies to address these challenges. (150 WORDS)