27-Oct-2023-Editorial

WARMING TIES: ON BHUTAN-CHINA RELATIONS AND INDIA’S CONCERNS

The recent visit of the Bhutanese Foreign Minister to China, coupled with the 25th round of boundary talks and the signing of the Cooperation Agreement, marks a significant shift in the dynamics between Bhutan and China. This development raises concerns for India, given its unique relationship with Bhutan. The potential impacts on India encompass security, economic, diplomatic, and regional dimensions.

India’s Concerns and Red Lines:

Cautious Diplomatic Ties:

• India’s historical ties with Bhutan have led to caution regarding diplomatic relations and boundary agreements with China.
• Despite concerns, Bhutan’s Prime Minister reassured India that any agreement with China would not compromise India’s interests.

Red Lines and Security:

• India’s security red lines include preventing China’s presence in southern Doklam, crucial for safeguarding the Siliguri Corridor.
• The possibility of a territorial “swap” in certain areas raises strategic concerns, demanding careful management to avoid security risks.

Economic and Diplomatic Autonomy:

• Bhutan’s potential alignment with China challenges its economic dependence on India, impacting sectors like hydropower cooperation.
• A shift in diplomatic relations could alter the traditional pro-India foreign policy, affecting India’s influence in the region.

Impacts on India:

Security Implications:

• China’s increased influence in Bhutan, especially in strategic areas like the Doklam plateau, poses a threat to India’s security interests.
• A border deal involving Doklam could compromise India’s access to northeastern states through the Siliguri Corridor.

Economic Implications:

• Bhutan’s economic diversification toward China could reduce dependence on India, impacting India’s energy security.
• India’s role as Bhutan’s largest trading partner and source of foreign direct investment could be affected.

Diplomatic Implications:

• Bhutan’s formal diplomatic relations with China may challenge India’s influence in the region and alter the dynamics of regional organizations like SAARC and BIMSTEC.

Infrastructure, Connectivity, and Influence:

• Bhutan’s participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative may impact regional infrastructure development and connectivity.
• India’s influence in regional organizations could be diluted if Bhutan aligns more closely with China.

India’s Response Strategies:

Engage in Diplomacy:

• Continue diplomatic engagement with Bhutan to understand evolving relations with China.
• Open and transparent communication is crucial to address any concerns Bhutan may have.

Collaborate on Border Negotiations:

• Work closely with Bhutan on border negotiations, ensuring a mutually acceptable deal that addresses concerns on both sides.

Understand Bhutan’s Perspective:

• Strive to understand Bhutan’s motivations in dealing with China, recognizing its desire for economic development and security.

Build Confidence:

• Have confidence in Bhutan’s consideration of India’s interests and work to build mutual trust for regional stability.

Maintain Strong Bilateral Relationship:

• Strengthen bilateral ties through development assistance, cultural exchanges, and security cooperation.

Regional Cooperation:

• Explore trilateral or multilateral cooperation involving Bhutan, India, and China to address common challenges.

Conclusion:

Bhutan’s evolving relationship with China necessitates a nuanced response from India. Balancing security, economic interests, and regional influence is crucial. Through continued engagement, collaboration on border issues, and maintaining strong bilateral ties, India can navigate the complexities of this evolving relationship while safeguarding its strategic interests in the region. Regional cooperation and a diplomatic approach will be key in ensuring stability and mutual understanding amidst these changing dynamics.