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India’s foreign policy is encountering significant challenges within its immediate neighborhood, particularly in South Asia. Despite India’s global aspirations and endeavors to lead the global South, regional complexities hinder its progress. The emergence of a powerful neighbor, especially China, poses unique challenges that require a nuanced understanding. This situation demands a careful examination through the lens of international relations theories, particularly John Mearsheimer’s theory of offensive realism.
John Mearsheimer, a notable international relations theorist, proposes offensive realism, which asserts that states prioritize their security and survival by maximizing power relative to others in an anarchic international system. This pursuit of dominance results in competition, insecurity, and potential conflict among states.
Anti-India Regimes: Rise of politically anti-India regimes, as seen in the Maldives, creating diplomatic challenges.
Potential Ideological Shifts: Elections in Bangladesh may lead to an ideologically anti-India government, complicating regional stability.
Chinese Influence: China’s growing influence challenges India’s regional dominance and economic appeal. Structural shifts make it challenging for India to compete effectively for material benefits.
Changing Regional Dynamics: China’s non-normative approach disrupts India’s historical dominance in setting norms. Absence of viable alternatives forces South Asian states to consider non-normative alignments.
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Economic Influence: China’s extensive engagement in the Belt and Road Initiative enhances connectivity and trade. China’s financial capabilities give it a substantial advantage over India in economic influence.
Outreach to South Asian States: China proactively engages with states like Taliban-led Afghanistan, military-ruled Myanmar, and crisis-hit Sri Lanka. While India engages diplomatically, China’s scale and financial backing yield a more significant impact.
Border Dispute Resolution Strategy: China’s distinct strategy of resolving border issues contributes to its unique standing in the region.
Diminishing Presence of the United States:
The evolving geopolitical dynamics could potentially lock India into an unfriendly South Asia if innovative measures are not undertaken promptly.
Engage Friendly External Actors:
Flexible Diplomacy:
Expand Diplomatic Personnel:
Navigating the challenges posed by China’s rise and shifting dynamics in South Asia requires strategic recalibration. India must prioritize economic connectivity, regional security cooperation, and soft power to foster positive relationships. Active participation in regional platforms, strategic communication, and a patient, long-term vision are imperative for India to emerge as a stabilizing force in the evolving South Asian landscape.