18-July-2024-Editorial

UNEP REPORT: “NAVIGATING NEW HORIZONS: A GLOBAL FORESIGHT REPORT ON PLANETARY HEALTH AND HUMAN WELLBEING, 2024

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released the report titled “Navigating New Horizons: A Global Foresight Report on Planetary Health and Human Wellbeing, 2024.”

The report emphasizes addressing emerging challenges that could disrupt planetary health.

It highlights eight critical global shifts accelerating the triple planetary crisis of climate change, biodiversity loss, nature loss, and pollution.

Key Highlights of the Report

No Significant Progress in UN SDG Goals

• 85% of the 169 SDG targets are off track.
• 37% of the targets have shown no progress or have regressed since 2015 (2023 SDG Progress Report).
• 85% of the targets for SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), SDG 13 (Climate Action), SDG 14 (Life Below Water), and SDG 15 (Life on Land) are either stagnating or regressing.
• 60% of environmental indicators are either deteriorating or their status is unclear.

8 Shifts, 18 Signals of Change

• The report identifies 8 critical shifts with 18 potential signals of change.
• These signals are early indicators of potential future developments and could significantly impact the future.

Rapidly Changing Relationship Between Humans and Environment

• Human activities are expected to affect over 90% of land by 2050.
• Up to 46% of species may face extinction.
• Global temperatures are projected to rise by 2.1-3.9°C by 2100.
• Greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from fossil fuels, are driving these changes, with developed nations responsible for most emissions.

Scarcity and Competition for Critical Resources

• Global competition for critical resources is reshaping international security.
• Demand outpaces supply, increasing volatility and potential conflicts, especially in regions with concentrated reserves.
• Water and food face growing threats from climate change and unsustainable management, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations.
• Projected growth in demand for critical minerals by 2050 to achieve net zero emissions.

AI, Digital Transformation, and Technology

• Rapid advancement of digital technologies and AI driven by mobile devices, internet access, and the growth of AI.
• Environmental implications of these technologies require consideration.
• Over 8.89 billion mobile subscriptions, with around 5.6 billion users owning a device.
• 4% of the world’s population were internet users in 2023.

A New Era of Conflict

• AI-based and autonomous weapons could cause major global disruptions in 4-6 years without human oversight.
• Experts believe there is a high likelihood (59%) of such disruptions occurring, with a high perceived intensity of impact.
• Examples include the Ukrainian military using AI-equipped drones in the Russia-Ukraine war and the risk of AI-controlled bioweapons.

Mass Forced Displacement

• 5% of the global population is forcibly displaced, nearly double the number from a decade ago.
• Climate change is a major driver, with extreme conditions like wildfires, flooding, poor air quality, and intolerable heat contributing significantly.
• Africa, Central America, Pacific Islands, and South Asia face higher risks of climate-induced migration and displacement.
• By 2070, 3 billion people could live outside suitable climate conditions if no mitigation occurs.
• Environmental migrants could number between 25 million and 1 billion by 2050.
• Internally displaced persons have increased by 340% in 20 years, with climate-related disasters now displacing more people than conflicts.

Widening Inequalities

• Global inequality is worsening, with the top 10% holding over 75% of wealth, while the bottom 50% own just 2%.
• Inequality within nations is driven by unequal access to education, jobs, and services, as well as globalization.
• Wealth inequality also leads to ecological inequities, as the wealthy drive climate change while the poor face the greatest environmental harm.

Misinformation, Declining Trust, and Polarization

• Erosion of trust in science and public institutions has undermined evidence-based policymaking and democratic governance.
• Decline in trust, from perceived failures and ‘fake news’, makes it harder to implement effective policies to address challenges like the climate crisis.

Future Outlook and Recommendations of UNEP

Broadening Stakeholder Engagement

• Actively involve a diverse range of stakeholders, including women, indigenous groups, and young people.
• Use technological and social innovations to enhance public participation, combat misinformation, and build trust.

Stronger Voice for Young People

• Ensure young people have a significant role in decision-making at all governance levels to achieve intra- and inter-generational equity.

Redefining Progress Beyond GDP

• Incorporate broader indicators of human and environmental well-being, such as the Inclusive Wealth Index and Multidimensional Vulnerability Index.
• Guide investments towards Sustainable Development Goals.

Community Empowerment

• Promote agile and adaptive governance that empowers communities to experiment, innovate, and share knowledge.
• Set flexible long-term environmental goals and targets.

Data-Driven Decision-Making

• Leverage data, monitoring, and knowledge-sharing platforms to inform evidence-based policymaking across sectors and scales.
• Enhance environmental monitoring from local to global levels.

Sustainable Prosperity

• Transform economies and societies to achieve prosperity within environmental limits.
• Guided by shared values of equity, sustainability, and resilience.
• Reimagine the role of businesses, markets, and governance to prioritize people and the planet.