DECLINE IN INDIA’S FERTILITY RATE: CAUSES AND IMPLICATIONS
The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 highlights a significant decline in India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR). This trend could have major socio-economic and political effects, especially in southern states where demographic changes are more pronounced.
Key Findings of the Study
- India’s Fertility Trends
- The country’s TFR has decreased from 6.18 in the 1950s to 1.9 in 2021.
- The current TFR is below the replacement level of 2.1.
- By 2100, it is expected to fall further to 1.04, nearly one child per woman.
- Regional Differences in Fertility
- Southern states such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka achieved replacement-level fertility earlier than northern states.
- Kerala’s elderly population is projected to surpass the number of children by 2036, accounting for 23% of the population.
- Factors such as high wages, quality of life, and internal migration may bring around 60 lakh migrant workers to Kerala by 2030.
- The demographic shift is attributed to improvements in education, women’s empowerment, and advancements in health and social services.
Factors Contributing to Fertility Decline
- Socio-Economic and Cultural Influences
- India’s long-standing family planning programs have had a role, but higher female literacy and workforce participation are significant contributors.
- Changing social norms, including delayed or reduced marriage and motherhood, have also impacted fertility.
- Health and Migration Factors
- Increasing infertility among both men and women is contributing to lower fertility rates.
- Widespread availability and social acceptance of abortion services have contributed to the decline.
- Young Indians are increasingly migrating abroad for education and work, leading to lower fertility rates in the country.
About Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and Replacement Level
- Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
- TFR represents the average number of children born per woman during her reproductive years (15-49 years).
- According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) (2019-21), TFR in India has declined to 2.0 from 2.2 in NFHS-4 (2015-16).
- Replacement Level Fertility
- A TFR of 2.1 is considered the replacement level, ensuring population stability.
- Falling below this level can result in population decline and challenges such as an aging society.
Consequences of Declining Fertility Rates
- Aging Population
- Fewer births combined with longer life expectancy lead to an aging society.
- India currently has 149 million people aged 60 and above, forming 10.5% of the total population.
- This number is projected to rise to 347 million, or 20.8% of the population, by 2050.
- Economic Implications
- A smaller young workforce and a growing elderly population could increase dependency ratios.
- Higher social welfare and healthcare costs may burden governments and families.
- Unlike wealthier nations, India faces the challenge of an aging population with relatively lower per capita income.
- Impact on Labor Market
- Declining fertility rates could shrink the labor force and lower productivity.
- This may affect economic growth and hinder India’s ambition to become a global economic power.
Global Strategies to Address Falling Fertility Rates
- Germany: Implemented family-friendly labor laws, parental leave, and financial support to boost birth rates.
- Denmark: Provides government-funded in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatments for women under 40 years.
- Russia and Poland: Russia offers financial incentives to families with more children. Poland provides direct cash payments to encourage larger families.
Way Forward
- Policy Interventions
- India can adopt flexible labor policies, parental benefits, and childcare support to help working parents balance work and family.
- Reducing the high cost of raising children through subsidies and tax benefits could encourage higher birth rates.
- Ensuring affordable education and improving public institutions to align with labor market demands can help reduce financial pressures on families.
- Addressing Health and Nutrition
- Strengthening maternal and child healthcare through programs like Saksham Anganwadi and Poshan 2.0.
- Expanding prenatal and childcare support to promote healthier pregnancies and reduce infertility risks.
- Providing initiatives like pregnancy kits, as implemented in Telangana, can help monitor maternal health effectively.
- Reproductive Assistance
- Offering affordable IVF treatments and promoting surrogacy options can support couples facing fertility challenges.
- Creating awareness about reproductive health and fertility options can encourage informed family planning decisions.
Conclusion
India’s declining fertility rate presents both challenges and opportunities. Addressing the economic, health, and social implications through proactive policies and supportive measures can ensure a balanced demographic transition and sustained economic growth.
Mains Question:
- “Discuss the key challenges facing the Indus Waters Treaty and suggest measures to address them in the context of modern geopolitical and environmental concerns.” (150 WORDS)